世界银行：意外需求冲击下的收益分配分析（英文版）

This paper exploits gaps between observed and recently forecasted Gross Domestic Product growth in export destinations to estimate the effects of unexpected demand shocks on worker compensation. Using employer-employee panel data, the paper finds that the revenues from these demand shocks are partly transmitted to workers in the form of higher average wages, especially close to the top of the within-firm wage distribution. These wage responses occur both in the form of higher overtime payment