Krungsri Research：2024年泰国洪水风险与影响分析报告（英文版）

As Thailand’s rainy season progresses through the second half of 2024, there is a growing risk that extensive flooding will affect parts of the country. Indicators pointing in this direction include: (i) the weakening ONI, which is expected to swing from currently neutral conditions to a La Niña, thereby likely pushing rainfall above normal; (ii) the impact of regular tropical storms; (iii) the fall in the PDO and IOD indices, which are in or moving to a negative phase (i.e., below -0.5), ind