国际清算银行：气候相关物理风险的供应链传递（英文版）

How do climate anomalies affect GDP growth, and how do trade connections help understand this impact? We address these questions exploring local fluctuations in temperature and precipitation coupled with data on supply chain linkages between municipalities in Brazil. GDP growth falls with local anomalous dry spells and to a lower extent, also wet spells. Much of this effect is attributable to moderate levels of climate anomaly. This impact is sufficiently material to transmit across supply ch