国际货币基金组织：旅游业对小发展中国家增长的长期和短期影响（英文版）

We explore the relationship of recessions and tourism cycles on the economic performance of tourism-dependent Small Developing States (SDS). Using local projections regressions, we examine how these cycles affect potential output growth and its drivers—investment and employment—and estimate the short-run elasticity of tourism growth to economic activity. Our findings reveal that the long-term influence of recessions are less persistent in SDS than in larger emerging markets, as tourist-depend