高盛：2025年全球经济前沿研判：DeepSeek：微观风险积聚与宏观增益空间的动态博弈（英文版）

In mid-2023 we laid out the case for an AI investment cycle reaching 2% of annual GDP, where 1) an initial surge in hardware investment necessary to train AI models and run AI queries would ultimately fade as compute costs decline while 2) AI software investment increases steadily over time as end-user adoption increases. This thesis has largely borne out so far, albeit in a more frontloaded manner than we expected. n This weekend’s reports that DeepSeek obtained similar AI model performance