William Blair：2025年经济周评：这是否是美元制度的改变？（英文版）

We believe the term “currency strategist” could often be described as an oxymoron. Most studies show that forward exchange rates have little predictive power, and most foreign-exchange forecasts are backward-looking; they chase momentum and the macro consensus, and their accuracy is even lower than most other economic forecasts. Thus, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan used to say that the current spot rate is almost always the best estimate of the expected future rate. This is certainly true in