国际货币基金组织：2024财政整顿公告能帮助稳定通胀预期吗？（英文版）

In this paper, we use quarterly data and a novel database on fiscal policy consolidation announcements, for a sample of advanced economies and emerging markets to quantify the effects of fiscal tightening on inflation expectations. We find that fiscal consolidation announcements reduce inflation expectations over the medium-term (three and five-years ahead), but not in the short-term (one-year ahead). There is also some evidence that consolidation announcements reduce “disagreement” about exp