PIIE：2025年特朗普关税的全球经济影响研究报告（英文版）

This paper explores the implications of President Donald Trump’s so-called Liberation Day tariffs on the US and global economies under five alternative scenarios. As he continues to change his tariffs daily, the paper starts with a snapshot of two plausible, core, tariff scenarios based on his recent comments—one with high tariffs and one with low tariffs. We then consider two more scenarios in which other economies retaliate to the high or low US tariffs by imposing matching tariffs on