国际货币基金组织：对安全资产的需求和全球美元周期的溢出效应（英文版）

US dollar appreciations can inflict sizable negative cross-border spillovers. We investigate such spillovers from flight-to-safety shocks and the accompanying “global dollar cycle”. Results show that negative real sector spillovers from US dollar appreciations fall disproportionately on emerging markets. In contrast, effects on advanced economies are small and short-lived. Emerging market commodity exporters historically experienced larger negative spillovers than commodity importers, reflect