美联储：货币政策中的不确定性和风险（英文版）

This paper discusses the measurement, assessment, and communication of risks and uncertainty that are relevant for monetary policy. It provides a taxonomy of policy-relevant uncertainty related to the state and the structure of the economy, and the formation of expectations. A wide range of tools is available to assess and quantify uncertainty and the balance of risks. Qualitative assessments of uncertainty—in policy statements, minutes, and speeches—are the main tools to communicate uncertai