英国国家经济和社会研究所：2025年春季英国国家研究院经济展望报告（英文版）

We forecast GDP growth of 1.2 per cent in 2025. This marks a moderate downward revision since our Winter Economic Outlook, reflecting heightened domestic cost pressures, weak business confidence, and some additional drag from tariff uncertainty. J We forecast inflation to average 3.3 per cent over the year. Persistent wage growth stemming from a historically tight labour market and upward pressures from regulated price increases mean that inflation is likely to return to target more gradually