英国国家经济和社会研究所：2025年冬季经济展望报告（英文版）

Our outlook for the state of the UK economy in 2025 is a tale of two halves. Whereas in the first two quarters economic growth remains subdued and inflation above the two per cent target, in the second semester output growth will pick up and inflation will come back down. This pattern confirms something well-known and reveals something new. It confirms that the slow recovery from the 2022 spike in inflation and the ensuing cost-of-living crisis have put the spotlight squarely on policymaking