国际清算银行：极端天气事件后的经济活动、通货膨胀和货币政策：厄尔尼诺南方涛动及其对秘鲁经济的影响（英文版）

This paper studies how El Ni˜no Costero, a large climatic event, generates physical risks disrupting business cycles and hindering the effectiveness of monetary policy. Using Peruvian data, we find consistent empirical evidence that El Ni˜no shocks leave a footprint on the economy akin to a supply-side shock: it exerts inflationary pressures while simultaneously contracting GDP. The effects are very persistent and reflect the differentiated effects across sectors in the economy. Primary secto