泰国大城银行研究中心：2025年泰国洪水风险评估与经济影响分析报告（英文版）

In early 2025, global climate conditions remained in an ENSO-Neutral state1/ , as observed by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), which measures sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. As of June 20252/ , the ONI value was -0.1°C, which is considered neutral3/. However, an analysis of trends for the latter half of 2025 shows that the ONI is expected to weaken and may enter a La Niña phase4/ sooner than anticipated. This assessment is based on cyclical patterns from the past 75 years5/, inc