Rand兰德：2025年绘制通往通用人工智能的多条路径报告（英文版）

artificial intelligence (AI) and the potential emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI) have important national security implications for the United States, particularly with regard to its competition with China. Existing AI technology—in the form of large language models (LLMs)—has shown great promise, and many in the AI technology and policy worlds argue that LLMs may scale up to AGI in the near future. This paper is intended to complicate that position, explaining why there are b