经济学人智库：2024年特朗普风险指数报告-特朗普再次当选美国总统的全球影响（英文版）

The US presidential election in November will be a pivotal event for the global economy and geopolitics. We expect an extremely close contest between Democrat and Republican candidates. The presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump, would initiate sweeping policy changes in areas ranging from trade policy to national security if he returns to office. The global ramifications of these shifts mean that the implications of a Trump presidency are worth exploring fully. We have developed an ind