国际货币基金组织：2024危地马拉选定问题报告（英文版）

Guatemala has experienced various episodes of social unrest over the past ten years. Two episodes (2015 and 2023) stood out because of their duration, nature, scope, and effects. Both episodes, however, showed marked differences. How has social unrest impacted Guatemala’s economy? This paper estimates the effects of social unrest on Guatemala’s economy from 2001 to 2023, using the monthly Reported Social Unrest Index as a measure of social unrest. We find that, on average, the effects of