国际货币基金组织：2024年预防冲突的紧迫性——宏观经济视角报告（英文版）

Can macroeconomic policy effectively help prevent amed conflicts? This paper contends thattwo key criteri a need to be satis fied: the long-term benefits of prevention policies must exceed the costsas sociated with uncertain forecasts, and the policies themselves must be directly able to contribute to conflictprevention. This paper proposes policy simulations, based on a novel method of Mueller et al (2024a) thatintegrates machine learning and dynamic optimization, to show that investing in p