世界银行：主权风险下的扩张性财政整合（英文版）

This paper develops a sovereign default model with capital accumulation, long-term debt, and fiscal rules with two distortions: debt dilution and private underinvestment. Fiscal rules generate a long-run economic expansion because they mitigate default risk caused by dilution, which increases capital accumulation. In the short run, however, the economy goes through a costly transition where consumption and investment drop to finance debt reduction. These dynamic trade-offs are quantified, and