William Blair：2025年经济展望报告-美国例外主义持续（英文版）

At this time last year, we thought the probability of the U.S. tipping into recession was uncomfortably high. Nearly all of the economy’s historically best leading economic indicators were pointing to weakness—e.g., the yield curve, the PMIs, consumer and business sentiment. The labor market was already softening with a strong possibility of the Sahm rule soon being triggered (which ultimately happened in July), and consumers had almost fully depleted their pandemic savings. In addition, the