国际货币基金组织：情景综合与宏观经济风险（英文版）

We develop methodology to bridge scenario analysis and risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. The methodology, rooted in Bayesian analysis, addresses the fundamental challenge of reconciling judgmental narrative approaches with statistical forecasting. Analysis evaluates explicit measures of concordance of scenarios with a reference forecasting model, delivers predictive synthesis of the scenarios to best match that reference, and addresses scenario set in