高盛：2025年特朗普关税政策引发的经济衰退风险研究报告（英文版）

The Trump Administration’s dramatic tariff moves have upended decades of US trade policy, sparking a rapid reassessment of the US and global economic outlook and a surge in tariff-induced recession fears. What lies ahead for the US economy amid this radical policy shift—and the uncertainty around it—is Top of Mind. We speak to three economy-watchers about their views on recession risk: Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman (a recession seems likely, owing largely to uncertainty, which any policy re