英国财政研究所（IFS）：感觉到的冲击和冲动反应（英文版）

This paper develops a novel approach that leverages the information contained in expectations datasets to derive empirical measures of beliefs regarding economic shocks and their dynamic effects. Utilizing a panel of expectation revisions for a single variable across multiple horizons, we implement a timevarying factor model to nonparametrically estimate the latent shocks and their associated impulse responses at every point in time. The method is designed to accommodate small sample sizes an