美联储：有限视野规划下的通货膨胀预期（英文版）

Under finite horizon planning, households and firms evaluate a full set of state-contingent paths along which the economy might evolve out to a finite horizon but have limited ability to process events beyond that horizon. We show–analytically and empirically–that such a model accounts for an initial underreaction and subsequent overreaction of inflation forecasts. A planning horizon of four quarters can account for the evidence on the predictability of inflation forecast errors and macroecon