国际货币基金组织：债务风险（英文版）

This paper proposes a novel framework for analyzing the risks surrounding the public debt outlook, the “Debt-at-Risk.” It employs a quantile panel regression framework to assess how current macrofinancial and political conditions impact the entire spectrum of possible future debt outcomes. Many of these factors—including financial conditions and economic variables such as initial debt and GDP growth—predict both the expected level and the uncertainty of future debt, implying pronounced variat