国会预算办公室：基于调查的利率转移终点动态期限结构模型（英文版）

In this paper, I present a dynamic term structure model of interest rates that features a shifting endpoint and incorporates survey forecasts of interest rates to sharpen the model’s implied forecasts and estimate trend interest rates. I present a new estimate of trend interest rates from the model as well as the model’s estimates of term premiums. I conduct an out-of-sample forecast analysis with the model and find that it significantly outperforms a standard dynamic term structure model wit