世界银行：速率周期（英文版）

We analyse cycles in policy interest rates in 24 advanced economies over 1970- 2024, combining a new application of business cycle methodology with rich timeseries decompositions of the shocks driving rate movements. “Rate cycles” have gradually evolved over time, with less frequent cyclical turning points, more moderate tightening phases, and a larger role for global shocks. Against this backdrop, the 2020-24 rate cycle has been unprecedented in many dimensions: it features the fastest pivot