ADB亚洲开发银行：2024年俄乌战争、化肥价格和粮食安全：来自亚洲稻米生产经济体的证据（英文版）

This study assesses the impact of increased fertilizer prices under different scenarios on rice production, consumption, trade and prices. Using a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework, the simulation results show that a 30% to 100% increase in fertilizer prices would reduce rice yields by 0.45% to 1.33%, but increase world rice prices by 7% to 23% between 2022 and 2025. As the world market price for rice increases significantly, rice trade and rice consumption will decre