国际清算银行：收益率曲线上的货币政策：央行会影响长期实际利率吗？（英文版）

This paper presents theory and evidence to advance the notion that very persistent policy-induced interest rate changes may have only weak effects on activity. This arises when consumption-savings decisions are not primarily driven by intertemporal substitution, but also by life-cycle forces. The small impact of persistent rate changes results when intertemporal substitution and asset valuation effects are offset by interest income effects, which affect asset demand. In our framework, knowing