ADB亚洲开发银行：低频数据的经济预测框架（英文版）

Standard nowcasting frameworks commonly use weekly or monthly variables to monitor quarterly gross domestic product (GDP). However, this method is not suitable for economies that track GDP annually. We modify the state-space representation of an otherwise standard dynamic factor model to represent annual variables as a linear combination of latent monthly indicators for more frequently released variables. Using data from a lower middle-income country, we derive a monthly activity measure that