Amundi：2025年年中全球投资展望报告：驾驭政策不确定性与变革（英文版）

We expect US real GDP growth to slow from nearly 3% in 2023–24 to 1.6% in 2025, largely due to weakened private demand. Higher tariffs will raise prices, dampening consumer sentiment and spending, while uncertainty will weigh on investment. Although fiscal measures and deregulation may provide some relief, the impact is likely to be limited, with average tariffs around 15% (as per our base case) leading to economic losses and a temporary resurgence in inflation. Amid the growth slowdown, the