国际清算银行：关税冲击后的市场波动：基于事件的目标变量自回归（VAR）分析方法（英文版）

On 2 April 2025, the U.S. President announced one of the largest tariff packages in history, triggering sharp financial market reactions. Yet within six weeks, markets had largely recovered. This paper develops an event-targeted vector autoregression (ETVAR) framework to disentangle three potential explanations for the recovery: the transitory nature of the initial shock, offsetting tariff announcements, and other macroeconomic surprises. Our orthogonalisation method isolates a dominant shock