美国电影协会（MPA）：电影盗版对票房收入的双重影响：蚕食和促销（英文版）

There are two main hypothesized effects from movie piracy: a cannibalization effect which reduces legitimate sales, and a promotional effect which increases word-of-mouth and stimulates sales. While these two effects are commonly discussed, there has been no research to measure their relative impact on motion picture sales. In this paper we use a hidden Markov model adapted from MOVIEMOD to decompose, and separately measure, the cannibalization and promotional impacts of piracy. Using data fr