国际货币基金组织：2024年新兴经济体产出缺口的不确定性与实时财政政策调整报告（英文版）

Uncertainty around the real-time output gap has important implications for fiscal policy. Thisstudy uses successive vintages ofthe World Economic Outlook for emerging markets (EMs) during 1998.2022 to examine the reaction of discretionary fiscal policy to uncertain economic cycle in real-time. Thefindings show that Elvis tend to have persistently negative and significantly more volatile real-timeoutput gap estimates compared to advanced economies (AEs) and are less responsive to the output ga