三菱日联：2025年大宗商品展望报告-审慎选择，对冲特朗普引发的尾部风险（英文版）

The sweeping pivots in US trade, energy, fiscal and immigration policies in a governing trifectaTrump 2.0 mandate, are inflationary. Commodities act as a critical inflation hedge as physicalassets historically deliver strong real returns when inflation rises, while equity and bond realreturns tend to be negative. This fortifies the diversification play commodities offer portfolioallocations across three central Trump-induced inflation shocks-(1) positive demand shock;(2) negative supply shock