ACCA：2025年全球经济展望报告-一个高度不确定的世界（英文版）

The risks are predominantly on the downside, particularly if changes in US trade policy result in large, sustained rises in tariffs that are much less targeted than during President Trump’s first term, and lead to retaliation by trading partners. Other downside risks come from the challenging geopolitical backdrop, heightened political uncertainty and rising government bond yields. The world is not without plausible upside scenarios, particularly if President Trump is more cautious in