Rand兰德：2025年理解人工智能病原体设计的理论局限性-德尔菲研究的见解报告（英文版）

Aoncerns that artificial intelligence (AI) might enable pathogen design are increasing, but risks and timelines remain unclear. In this report, the authors present findings from a Delphi study designed to assess the near-term limits of AI-enabled biological design (AIxBio). Rather than forecasting specific risks, the authors’ central objective was to identify which biological and AI-related constraints might serve as hard or persistent barriers to this specific misuse. To do so, they conducte