学术论文

I propose a new cardinal measure of poverty, which builds on the intuitive notion that a person with half the income...

Large firms borrow in foreign currency and are net providers of trade credit to firms in their supply chains. We model the transmission of exchange rate risk via firm balance sheets along the supply chain. Trade credit loosens borrowing constraint...

This paper presents comprehensive findings on the relationship between economic growth and poverty. Using a first-difference model applied to data from more than 80 countries spanning over 20 years, the paper investigates how changes in gross dome...

The Motion Picture Association, Inc. (“MPA”) appreciates the opportunity to respond to the Copyright Office’s Notice of Inquiry and Request for Comments on Artificial Intelligence and Copyright (Docket No. USCO 2023-6), 88 Fed. Reg. 59942 (Aug. 30...

There are two main hypothesized effects from movie piracy: a cannibalization effect which reduces legitimate sales, and a promotional effect which increases word-of-mouth and stimulates sales. While these two effects are commonly discussed, there ...

Reliable and comprehensive data is a key precondition for informed policy making on national, regional, and global levels (OECD 2020). Policymakers require data not only to understand their challenges and opportunities but also to evaluate the imp...

This work shows the impact of Önancial crises across industries and the total manufacturing sector. I Önd both a direct impact of Önancial crises on all manufacturing growth and an additional e§ect through an external Önance dependence channel. Ex...

In February 2024, the Financial Stability Institute (FSI) of the BIS, with the support of experts from the advisory firm Oliver Wyman, conducted a cross-border Crisis Simulation Exercise (CSE) involving authorities with responsibilities for crisis...

Quantum computers are still in an experimental phase, but in the future, they may have a profound impact on the financial system. By providing faster and potentially more efficient solutions, quantum computers have the potential to solve certain c...

While Chinese banks have become the top cross-border lender to EMDEs, their expansion has slowed recently, both in terms of volume and market share. Also, the strong correlation of China’s bilateral trade and its banks’ cross-border lending has we...

Electricity production is the sector with the largest share of global emissions and there are many options for decarbonizing it. Identifying the lowest cost option for achieving decarbonization (and full reliability) is a complex optimization pr...

Soft power is difficult to measure directly, and existing indicators—mostly subjective and not always transparent—fail to take into account the multidimensional nature of soft power. In this paper, we introduce a new comprehensive Global Soft Powe...

自然语言处理一直是人工智能最热门的应用研究领域，对科学技术、文化 教育、经济社会的发展各个方面都具有极其重大的意义。自然语言处理的研究 一直存在两类颇不相同而又相互补足的研究方法，即：规则方法与统计方法。 规则方法追求的是对自然语言的理解，但严重受到领域的限制；统计方法恰 好相反，它所追求的是领域无限，但语言理解能力却成为短板。近年以来，以 ChatGPT 为代表的生成式预训练对话人工智能技术（即大语言模型，简称大 模型）取得了令人瞩目的进展，给基于统计方法的自然语言处理技术带来了前 所未...

Using a new series of crypto shocks, we document that money market funds’ (MMF) assets under management, and traditional financial market variables more broadly, do not react to crypto shocks, whereas stablecoin market capitalization does. U.S. mo...

The results of this paper provide empirical evidence that regulatory capital ratios drive bank Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and that markets react more to changes in capital requirements if implemented via direct adjustments to Pillar 1 risk weights...

This paper examines labor markets across Latin American countries, revealing substantial differences in unemployment, informality, and worker transitions. Using surveys from eight countries, we construct comparable statistics on employment stocks ...

We develop a model of the individual term structure of inflation expectations across forecasting horizons. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we decompose disagreement about inflation expectations into individuals’ long-term beliefs, pr...

We study the importance of information technology (IT) in banking for entrepreneurship. Guided by a parsimonious model, we establish that job creation by young firms is stronger in US counties more exposed to banks with greater IT adoption. We pre...

We study how the mortgage interest deduction (MID) affects refinancing. Households who deduct mortgage interest from their taxes face a lower post-tax mortgage rate, reducing the interest savings from refinancing net of taxes. We estimate the effe...