学术论文

This paper provides an overview of stress-testing methodologies in Europe, with a focus on theadvancements made by the European Central Bank's Financial Stability Committee Working Group onStress Testing (WGST). Over a four-year period, the WG...

While global supply chains have recently gained attention in the context of the Covid-related crisis as well as the war in Ukraine, their role in transmitting and amplifying climate-related physical risks across countries has received surprisingly...

This paper discusses the recent wave of research that has emphasized the importance of measures of consumers’ inflation expectations. In contrast to other measures of expected inflation, such as for experts or financial market participants, consum...

The wafer-thin poll margins separating President Joe Biden and Donald Trump have surprised and baffled many analysts. This paper attempts no analysis of the election itself. It focuses instead on a clinical assessment of its macroeconomic context....

Climate change is expected to increase short-run shocks and extreme events in oceanic conditions. Fishery managers are considering how to design climate-ready systems that enable fishers and fishing communities to adapt to these events without jeo...

We analyze binding constraints to productivity growth in the United Kingdom’s regions outside London and the greater South East. These analyses challenge a number of common arguments about the UK’s regional economic inequality problem. We find lit...

Rural-to-urban migration in China has transformed the lives of millions of rural residents. This paper reviews empirical evidence on the impacts of migration on the welfare of individuals and households in rural communities. After first discussing...

This study examines the impact of farm input subsidies, food and cash transfers, and irrigation investments on the dietary diversity, food consumption scores, and coping strategy index in Malawi. Despite the potential for synergies to address a ra...

What drives citizen’s trust in state institutions? There are longstanding debates on the pathways towards institutional trust: is trust driven by citizen’s perceptions of policy outcomes or by their perceptions of the integrity and credibility of ...

This paper provides one of the first estimates of elasticities of substitution across suppliers within the same product. This paper estimates these elasticities using new real-time administrative tax data on firm-to-firm transactions, with product...

The world economy has experienced the largest financial crisis in generations, a global pandemic, and a resurgence in inflation during the first quarter of the 21st century, yielding important insights for central banking. Price stability has impo...

We study how monetary policy shapes the aggregate and distributional effects of an energy price shock. Based on the observed heterogeneity in consumption exposures to energy and household wealth, we build a quantitative small open-economy HANK mod...

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries, like most developing countries, face major challenges to achieve strong, sustainable, and inclusive growth with the view to reduce significantly persistent poverty and inequality. Many of these challenges result...

This paper uses a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) framework to estimate the pass-through of unexpected gas price supply shocks on HICP inflation in the euro area and its four largest economies. In comparison to oil price shocks, ...

This paper presents some sound practices for foreign-currency risk management in developing countries and outlines instruments for managing sovereign debt portfolio currency exposures. Adoption of a debt management strategy with well-defined targe...

This paper documents the role of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Mozambique, discussessome important fiscal issues, and makes the case for improvements in govemance and transparency. A firststep is to enhance timely and regular collection of dat...

We evaluate the effect of a cash transfer to households forecast to experience extreme food.ing in Bangladesh five days before the food peak based on hydrological modelling. We findthat this 'anticipatory’transfer improved welfare during and t...