学术论文

While India’s growth has been strong in recent decades, its structural transformation remains incomplete. In this paper, we first take stock of India’s growth to date. We find that economic activity has shifted from agriculture to services, but ag...

In this paper, we theoretically and empirically explore the role of firm labor market power in the wage-output relationship. We start by laying out a theoretical model with imperfect labor mobility between firms and sectors, which implies upward-...

Commission Staff works with the reported information and with filers to identify and correct filing errors and employs certain methodologies and assumptions in aggregating the data. Commission Staff updates reported statistics from time to time to...

This paper summarizes evidence on financial instruments and regulatory approaches to spur private investment in pursuit of the 2030 Sustainable Developments Goals. Starting from a theoretical framework demonstrating that raising the marginal produ...

This study uses individual-level census data from Argentina to examine the socioeconomic disparities between Native and non-Native people. Native people fare worse across a variety of indicators, including housing, education, employment, and healt...

This paper describes the challenges of accurately measuring the upper tail of the income and wealth distributions in low- and middle-income countries. It reviews the seminal contributions in the literature on measuring the top of the income distri...

Ranked voting is an election format in which each voter ranks candidates on a ballot, and individual rankings are aggregated using a general rule to produce a social ranking. This paper proposes a non-cooperative model of this electoral system. Th...

The brick industry is one of the primary sources of carbon dioxide emissions and local air pollutants in Nepal. Coal, which accounts for one-third of the current national carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel sources and is entirely imported, ...

Treasury yields have fallen since the 1980s. Standard decompositions of Treasury yields into expected short-term interest rates and term premiums suggest term premiums account for much of the decline. In an alternative real-time decomposition, ter...

We propose a model with costly international financial intermediation that links exchange rate movements to shifts in the demand for domestically produced goods relative to the demand for imported goods (trade rebalancing). Our model is consistent...

This paper proposes a parsimonious framework for designing contingent capital contracts (CoCos). CoCos designed this way (i) are either optimal or incentive compatible for equity holders, (ii) implement a unique equilibrium, and (iii) result in an...

This study scrutinizes the quality of “bottom-up” forecasts of near-term S&P 500 Composite earnings, derived by aggregating analysts’ forecasts for individual firm-level earnings. We examine whether forecasts are broadly consistent with curren...

This paper studies how measured beliefs can be used to identify monetary non-neutrality. In a general equilibrium model with both nominal rigidities and endogenous information acquisition, we analytically characterize firms’ optimal dynamic inform...

We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of labor market outcomes and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they ...

The debt sustainability framework for market access countries has been designed by the International Monetary Fund for all market access countries, a set that includes emerging markets and advanced economies. The debt sustainability framework for ...

It is well-known that dollar credit to emerging market (EM) corporates has expanded dramatically in the past two decades. However, the concurrent expansion of local currency credit, facilitated by more developed domestic financial systems, has bee...

We estimate the risk premium for firm-level climate change exposure from 2003 to 2019. Exposure is constructed from discussions of climate-related risks and opportunities in earnings calls. When extracted from realized returns, the unconditional r...