国会预算办公室：2025年CBO的药物开发模式：持续更新报告（英文版）

CBO models pharmaceutical firms’ decision-making over time about whether to move a given drug through the development process. To bring a drug to market, a firm is assumed to have four decision points: phase 0 (preclinical studies), phase I, phase II, and phase III. CBO treats phase 0, which is outside the model, as exogenous. The agency is updating the modeling of decision-making in phases I, II, and III. The firm analyzes expected returns and expected costs for its drug candidate. If expect