期刊文章

The fast stream is the civil service’s flagship talent development programme. It has become a staple of the graduate recruitment market and is regularly rated as one of the top graduate employers in the country. It is now an essential pipeline for...

Over recent decades, comprehensive data protection legislation has proliferated worldwide, with a majority of jurisdictions enacting robust statutory regimes. Despite this abundance of legal standards, persistent challenges remain regarding the ef...

In heavy-tailed cases, variance targeting the Student’s-t estimator proposed in Bollerslev (1987) for the linear GARCH model is shown to be robust to density misspecification, just like the popular Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE). The re...

How do banks respond to geopolitical risk, and is this response distinct from other macroeconomic risks? Using U.S. supervisory data and new geopolitical risk indices, we show that banks reduce cross-border lending to countries with elevated geopo...

We propose a novel estimation framework for option pricing models that incorporates local, state-dependent information to improve out-of-sample forecasting performance. Rather than modifying the underlying option pricing model, such as the Heston-...

A 2021–22 Survey of Trade Promotion Organisations (TPOs) conducted by the World Bank to understand how the COVID-19 pandemic affected their functioning uncovers significant heterogeneity in TPOs’ characteristics across countries, but also income l...

This paper provides new estimates of the neutral interest rate, or r*, with a frequency domain approach using quarterly data from China, Japan, Korea, and the US. Utilizing band spectrum regressions, we estimate two types of neutral rates, which h...

Basic macroeconomic models predict convergence: that poor countries will grow faster than, or catch up to, rich countries. The empirical evidence for these predictions has at times suggested unconditional or divergence. More recent data indicate c...

Local projections (LPs) are widely used in empirical macroeconomics to estimate impulse responses to policy interventions. Yet, in many ways, they are black boxes. It is often unclear what mechanism or historical episodes drive a particular estima...

The distributive effects of carbon taxation are critical for its political acceptability and depend on both income and geographic factors. Using French administrative data, household surveys, and matched employer-employee records, we document that...

We conducted a randomized field experiment to investigate the impact of direct central bank communication on the monetary policy knowledge and expectations of non-experts. Between 2022 and 2025, at the ECB Visitor Centre, we exposed nearly 5,000 p...

对中国常见的戒烟药物干预策略进行成本效用分析，以探究药物戒烟作为中国 恶性肿瘤一级预防策略的卫生经济性。方法　通过建立Markov队列模拟模型，模拟10 000名35岁有 戒烟意愿的人群采用多种药物戒烟策略的干预效果。模型共纳入12种与吸烟相关的恶性肿瘤，分别 为肺癌、口腔癌、鼻咽癌、喉癌、食管癌、胃癌、胰腺癌、肝癌、肾癌、膀胱癌、宫颈癌和髓系白血病。以 1年为循环周期，模拟时长为50个周期，评价指标采用增量成本效用比（ICER），意愿支付阈值为1倍 人均国民生产总值。通过单因素敏感性分析...

Bonding chatbots represent a new frontier in digital technology — one that merges affective computing with machine learning to simulate emotionally significant human relationships. While these tools may offer support to individuals grappling with ...

This study investigates the economic effects of climate change on small open economies within a broader global context, using South Korea as a case study. We apply advanced econometric techniques to analyze high-dimensional functional data and emp...

When economic analysis requires simultaneous inference across multiple variables and time horizons, this paper shows that conventional pointwise quantiles in Bayesian structural vector autoregressions significantly understate the uncertainty of im...

This paper studies the role of financial intermediaries in the transmission of central bank corporate bond purchases to bond yields. Contrary to standard expectations, we find that mutual funds—typically viewed as price-elastic investors—amplify, ...

Subdued economic activity and low tax revenues, especially during crises, drive borrowing and increase public debt. During these periods, to ease the debt burden, central banks may face pressure to deviate from policy targets. Under fiscal dominan...