学术论文

This paper investigates how the global dominance of the US dollar amplifies thecross-border transmission offinancial shocks originating in the United States. I de-velop a small open economy DSGE model that embeds the dollar's central role inin...

教育挑战和机遇。人工智能越来越被视为有潜力支持 教学实践、增强学生学习，并普遍提高教学、专业学 习和行政任务的效率。与此同时，教育中的人工智能 可能会削弱人的能动性，允许侵犯隐私和数据安全， 并加剧现有的系统性不平等和教育排斥。因此， 人工 智能既带来了变革机遇，也带来了深刻责任，以确保 其设计、开发和应用能够增强而非削弱教育所必需的 独特人类能力。 因此，我们正处在一个关键节点，需 要所有相关方进行集体反思并采取果断行动，塑造一 个确保人工智能技术合乎伦理、包容和公平应用的教 育未来。<...

The discourse on automation and artificial intelligence (AI) highlights the critical yet underexplored role of data work. While previous studies have focused on data work in the production of AI systems, this article investigates its significance ...

Announcing a large fiscal stimulus may signal the government’s pessimism about the severity of a recession to the private sector, impairing the stabilizing effects of the policy. Using a theoretical model, we show that these signaling effects occu...

This paper examines how structural change in labor markets affects householdcredit outcomes. Using a Shift-Share instrumental variable approach, we find thatoccupational shifts negatively infuence mortgage holding for houscholds facing fa.vorable ...

In contrast to the conventional Fisherian view that inflation reduces real debt positions, we show that significant increases in inflation are strongly associated with financial crises. In the spirit of Jord`a et al. (2020), countries with free an...

In an age of geopolitical and technological disruption, defence spending is increasingly viewed not merely as a security imperative but also as a strategic lever for industrial renewal and longer-term economic resilience. The North Atlantic Treaty...

This Selected Issues Paper (SIP) analyzes recent developments in the real estate market in Bosnia and Herzegovina, focusing on housing price dynamics, financial stability implications, and policy responses. Housing prices in Bosnia and Herzegovi...

Taking the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) as given, our paper evaluates the impact of this terms-of-trade shock on the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA). Using a novel methodology and fresh data applied to the la...

The paper documents recent changes in trade flow dynamics between Mexico, the U.S. and China, focusing on the period around 2017-2023. Using product-level bilateral trade data, the paper studies recent trends in the composition of the origin of U....

Young people in Bhutan face rising rates of exclusion from employment, education, or training, and limited access to quality jobs, despite gains in education. Entrepreneurship is often viewed as an alternative pathway, but most youth-led ventures ...

This paper provides evidence that rising misallocation in the R&D sector contributed to the recent slowdown in U.S. productivity growth. I develop a growth accounting framework allowing for misallocation of R&D resources across firms captu...

We estimate distributional implications of global food and oil price shocks by utilizing monthly panel data on consumption and income from India, and an IV strategy that removes variation coming from global demand shocks. While both shocks lead to...

Rising geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities have driven recent fragmentation of foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper provides systematic evidence of FDI fragmentation along ideological and geographic lines across five dime...

We present a principal component analysis of euro area labor market conditions by combining information from 22 labor market indicators into two comprehensive series. These two novel indicators provide a systematic view of the current state and fo...

This paper empirically investigates sources of hysteresis, focusing on downward nominal wage rigidity and the gender gap in the labor market, using U.S. state-level payroll employment data. Employing a Bayesian Markov-switching model of business c...

We find that an increase in policy rate uncertainty is associated with an increase in MMF portfolio allocations towards assets with shorter-dated maturities. We also find that the direction of uncertainty matters: MMF portfolio maturity is more se...

We examine how primary dealers utilized repo operations conducted by the Federal Reserve from September 2019 until May 2020 and how usage affected dealer borrowing and lending. Using daily dealer-level supervisory data, we find that during normal ...

Did bank equity prices reflect growing sector imbalances before the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank? We find that banks with higher reliance on uninsured deposits, or with higher marked-to-market leverage, had lower equity returns prior to SVB...