学术论文

No large European countries and only few small ones have met the so-called Bohn rule during the past 40 years or so. The Bohn rule specifies that past increases of public debt need to be systematically compensated with current and future fiscal su...

This paper uses both macro and household-level data to examine the relationship between digital financial inclusion, measured by the Peking University digital financial inclusion index, and income inequality in China. We find that a higher level o...

This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic and fiscal impact of unconventional monetary tools in small open economies. Using a DSGE model, we show that the exchange rate plays a critical role to amplify the favourable impa...

The Brazilian labor market went through significant changes in 2017 with reforms to reduce litigation and increase flexibility in employment contracts. Using firm-level data, we exploit the variation in litigation cases across Brazilian states to ...

US dollar appreciations can inflict sizable negative cross-border spillovers. We investigate such spillovers from flight-to-safety shocks and the accompanying “global dollar cycle”. Results show that negative real sector spillovers from US dollar ...

There are competing narratives about artificial intelligence’s impact on inequality. Some argue AI will exacerbate economic disparities, while others suggest it could reduce inequality by primarily disrupting high-income jobs. Using household micr...

We introduce our first-generation reasoning models, DeepSeek-R1-Zero and DeepSeek-R1.DeepSeek-R1-Zero, a model trained via large-scale reinforcement learning (RL) without super vised fine-tuning (SFT) as a preliminary step, demonstrates remarkable...

This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highligh...

This paper presents a new approach to measuring Global Value Chain (GVC) participation, essential for informed policy-making. It introduces a tripartite classification of GVC involvement—backward, forward, and two-sided— extending beyond trade to ...

Although the feasibility of introducing climate policies underpins global efforts to curb climate change, there has been limited analysis estimating the likelihood of introducing specific policies in different country contexts. Drawing on a datase...

The rise ofGenerative Al (GenAl) in knowledge workflows raisesquestions about its impact on critical thinking skills and practices.We survey 319 knowedge workers to invstigate 1) when andhow they perceive the enaction of critical thinking when usi...

Using a broad definition of energy consumption that includes both residential energy use and gasoline for transport, we identify 20% of households in the PSID as energy burdened (EB) based on a twice-the-median, income-based threshold. Logit analy...

This article examines U.S. Treasury securities market functioning from the global financial crisis (GFC) through the Covid-19 pandemic given the ensuing market developments and associated policy responses. We describe the factors that have affecte...

Since the initial launch of inflation targeting in the early 1990s in New Zealand and a few other countries, inflation targeting has become the predominant monetary policy strategy in large advanced and emerging market economies. Inflation targeti...

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on portfolio rebalancing in international bond markets through the prism of investors’ demand for bonds. Using a granular dataset of global government and corporate bond holdings by mutual funds domicil...

Madagascar faces significant challenges in electricity access, with only 36 percent of the population connected. The state-owned utility, JIRAMA, struggles with inefficient production, high transmission and distribution losses, and tariffs below...