学术论文

While development literature has come a long way in conceptualizing and measuring poverty multidimensionally, policy interventions to address it remain trapped in fragmented, sector-specific approaches. One of the main challenges in implementing i...

Advances in the scale and sophistication of individual income data compiled across high-income countries have enabled researchers to measure inequality and intergenerational mobility at a highly granular level and over long periods of time. The ed...

Current investment trends in emerging market and developing economies are not enough to meet the needs of their growing populations and will fall short of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals related to human and physical capital developmen...

Over the last decades, macro-economists have renewed their efforts to reduce the gap between monetary macroeconomics and real-world central banking. This paper reviews how macroeconomics has since 2016 approached the possible introduction of retai...

The Eurosystem implements its monetary policy through a set of monetary policy instruments (MPIs). The period covered by this report (2022-23) was dominated by high inflation, which led to a change from an easing to a tightening monetary policy en...

This paper evaluates the contribution of cross-sector allocative efficiency to the productivity slowdown in the US during the 1970s and 2000s. We extend the framework of Oberfield (2013) to derive sufficient statistics for allocative efficiency an...

In this paper, I digitize economic census data to study unconditional convergence in manufacturing labor productivity across Mexican states from 1988 to 2018. I document its existence in three­ digit industries at a rate of convergence of 1.22% pe...

The neutral band is the interval where deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) are not considered profitable arbitrage opportunities. After the great financial crisis, deviations from CIP are no longer short-lived, exposing some limitations ...

A convex combination of renting and traditional homeownership—Partial Ownership (PO)—is increasingly popular in many countries. We incorporate an existing for-profit PO contract into a life-cycle model to quantify its impact on investment in housi...

We study probabilities of extreme inflation events in the United States and the euro area. Using a state-space model that incorporates information from a large set of professional forecasters, we generate the term structure of inflation forecasts ...

This paper studies the evolution of China's production and trade patterns during its integration into the global economy. We document and explain new facts concerning changes in production and exports at the industry and firm levels using micr...

We use a merged global data set of security-level corporate bond issuance and firmlevel financial statement data to show that, in contrast to earlier periods of financial stress, during the COVID pandemic nonfinancial firms around the world were m...

Large-Scale Asset Purchases can impact the price of securities directly, when securities are targeted by the central bank, or indirectly through portfolio re-balancing of private investors. We quantify both the direct and the portfolio re-balancin...

We construct a novel measure of bank performance, investigate its determinants, and show that it affects bank resilience, lending behaviour and real outcomes. Using confidential and granular data, we measure performance against a market-based benc...

This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing econ...

We estimate the effects of personal income tax decreases on financial well-being, including qualitative subjective assessments and quantitative measures. A plausibly causal design shows that tax decreases in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act made survey r...

Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries during the 1960-2023 period. Over the entire period, a first global factor ex...

Many digital applications rely on the willingness of users to voluntarily share personal data. Yet some users are more comfortable sharing data than others. To document these differences, we draw on questions to a representative sample of U.S. hou...

We propose a flexible machine learning (ML) framework for real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems (HVPS), which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. This framework can be used by system operators and ...