学术论文

Adélaïde Labille-Guiard (1749–1803), a remarkable portraitist, was among the small number of women ever granted membership in the French Royal Academy of Painting and Sculpture. Her work was sought out by such diverse figures as the aunts of Louis...

This paper investigates dynamic relationships between U.S. government expenditure multipliers and the economy's cyclical position from 1949 to 2018 using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. We challenge the existing...

The Citizenship-by-Investment Programs (CBI) have long been recognized in their importance to fiscal revenue in the ECCU, but there is less clarity over their broader economic contributions. At the same time, investor demand in this market can b...

: ECCU countries are highly vulnerable to recurring and increasingly severe natural disasters. Evidence suggests that severe natural disaster have negative impacts on fiscal balances and debt in the region. This underscores the need for comprehen...

Property insurance affordability presents a growing challenge for the ECCU. With a high reliance on global reinsurance to manage risks in high-exposure products like property, the recent tightening of global reinsurance market conditions has larg...

This paper examines the challenges of formulating monetary policy in the face of heightened uncertainty. We develop a framework to assess the optimal monetary policy path under uncertainty, focusing on four key dimensions: the expectation formatio...

We develop methodology to bridge scenario analysis and risk forecasting, leveraging their respective strengths in policy settings. The methodology, rooted in Bayesian analysis, addresses the fundamental challenge of reconciling judgmental narrativ...

This paper analyzes the link between digitalization and intergenerational occupational mobility in Africa. We use a probit model estimated on a large sample of 28 million individuals aged 14 and higher and co-residing with at least one individual ...

We study the behavior of liquidity providers and liquidity consumers in the 10-year U.S. Treasury futures market during the height of the COVID-19 shock in March 2020, a period of market turmoil when demand for liquidity was high. In March 2020, P...

Long-term debt is the main source of firm-financing in the U.S. We show that accounting for debt maturity is crucial for understanding business cycle dynamics. We develop a macroeconomic model with defaultable long-term debt and equity adjustment ...

This paper examines the place that a “look-through” approach to price shocks has acquired in inflation-targeting frameworks. The “look-through” approach reflects the fact that, in the event of a shock that is likely (on impact) to put a sizable sh...

This paper develops a bottom-up, sector-specific approach to modeling potential output that overcomes limitations of traditional top-down estimates for long-term projections and policy analysis. The model disaggregates total-factor productivity (T...

This study evaluates the impact of a program leveraging large language models for virtual tutoring in secondary education in Nigeria. Using a randomized controlled trial, the program deployed Microsoft Copilot (powered by GPT-4) to support first-y...

The growing role of nonbanks in corporate credit intermediation raises important but underexplored questions about how both monetary policy (MP) and macroprudential policies (MaPP) affect lending and the real economy. Using syndicated loan data, w...

This paper develops a new multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze extent to which the diversification of sources of imports mitigates the impact of adverse trade shocks. The model incorporates trade network rigidi...

The Western Balkan economies have faced numerous external shocks in recent years, while simultaneously becoming more integrated with the European Union. This paper employs a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to estimate the spillovers of r...

We construct a unique dataset by collecting macro-financial commitments data using textual analysis of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFPs), a document outlining, inter-alia, policy commitments by member countries, in the cont...