国际货币基金组织：2024年调和随机游走和可预测性：汇率动态的双分量模型报告（英文版）

This paper addresses a key puzzle in intemational finance: whether exchange rates follow arandom walk or exhibit predictable patems, We demonstrate that exchange rates can possess a unit root whilemaintaining substantial predictab ility over certain horizons. Our model combines a stochastic trendrepresenting the slowiy moving eauilibrium exchanae rate-and a stationary cvclical component capturinatemporary deviations, reconciling long-tem random walk behavior with medium-term predictability.Th