学术论文

As internet technology proliferate in volume and complexity, the ever-evolving landscape of malicious cyberattacks presents unprecedented security risks in cyberspace. Cybersecurity challenges have been further exacerbated by the continuous grow...

Agentic AI systems—AI systems that can pursue complex goals with limited direct supervision— are likely to be broadly useful if we can integrate them responsibly into our society. While such systems have substantial potential to help people more e...

Researchers typically compare inflation in the new Keynesian (NK) model to published inflation measures constructed from indices like the CPI. Inflation in the standard NK model without price indexation is bounded above. The model analogue of fixe...

We measure the Euro Area (EA) output gap and potential output using a non-stationary dynamic factor model estimated on a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables. From 2012 to 2023, we estimate that the EA economy was tighter than th...

Survey measurements of households’ expectations about U.S. equity returns show substantial heterogeneity and large departures from the historical distribution of actual returns. The average household perceives a lower probability of positive retur...

Since 2013, large U.S. hedge fund advisers have been required to report risk exposures in their regulatory filings. Using these data, we first establish that managers’ perceptions of risk contain useful information that is not embedded in fund ret...

Markets, likened to an invisible hand, often appear to contradict econometric assumptions that rule out spillovers of one person’s treatment on another’s outcomes. This paper provides a simple statistical framework highlighting that controls are i...

You asked about the budgetary, economic, and distributional effects of policies that would raise tariff rates on goods imported into the United States. Specifically, you asked the Congressional Budget Office to estimate the effects of permanently ...

In forming its long-run projections of the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that a 1 percentage-point increase in the projected ratio of debt to gross domestic product raises average long-run inter...

Fiscal decisions develop through multiple stages of political discussions and lengthy legislative processes. We propose a measure of public attention to fiscal policy news based on Google Trends and investigate the reaction of households’ expectat...

This paper estimates the impact of bilateral labor arrangements on migration between two countries. It uses comprehensive data on bilateral migration and bilateral labor agreements across all country pairs for each decade from 1960 to 2020, and em...

This paper studies tax evasion and the contribution-benefit link in the context of maternity benefits in Hungary. Earnings and employment patterns suggest pre-pregnancy underreporting, followed by formalization of some earnings and employment duri...

This paper examines two key questions about decarbonization and its economic implications. First, it analyzes how environmental provisions in trade agreements affect bilateral trade flows, with a specific focus on the Middle East and North Africa ...

The Middle East and North Africa is the most water scarce region in the world. Although studies have explored the effect of extreme weather events on agriculture, much less is known about the effect on businesses. Using geocoded firm-level data fr...

This study examines the effects of climate and weather shocks on Afghanistan’s agricultural economy, with an emphasis on food security, prices, and wages. By utilizing a dynamical model and a unique data set that includes monthly global and local ...

This paper examines the evolution of greenfield investment announcements—both domestic and international—for US multinational companies in response to recent global shocks. The results indicate an intensification of reshoring and nearshoring activ...