学术论文

We study the behavior of liquidity providers and liquidity consumers in the 10-year U.S. Treasury futures market during the height of the COVID-19 shock in March 2020, a period of market turmoil when demand for liquidity was high. In March 2020, P...

Long-term debt is the main source of firm-financing in the U.S. We show that accounting for debt maturity is crucial for understanding business cycle dynamics. We develop a macroeconomic model with defaultable long-term debt and equity adjustment ...

This paper examines the place that a “look-through” approach to price shocks has acquired in inflation-targeting frameworks. The “look-through” approach reflects the fact that, in the event of a shock that is likely (on impact) to put a sizable sh...

This paper develops a bottom-up, sector-specific approach to modeling potential output that overcomes limitations of traditional top-down estimates for long-term projections and policy analysis. The model disaggregates total-factor productivity (T...

This study evaluates the impact of a program leveraging large language models for virtual tutoring in secondary education in Nigeria. Using a randomized controlled trial, the program deployed Microsoft Copilot (powered by GPT-4) to support first-y...

The growing role of nonbanks in corporate credit intermediation raises important but underexplored questions about how both monetary policy (MP) and macroprudential policies (MaPP) affect lending and the real economy. Using syndicated loan data, w...

This paper develops a new multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze extent to which the diversification of sources of imports mitigates the impact of adverse trade shocks. The model incorporates trade network rigidi...

The Western Balkan economies have faced numerous external shocks in recent years, while simultaneously becoming more integrated with the European Union. This paper employs a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to estimate the spillovers of r...

We construct a unique dataset by collecting macro-financial commitments data using textual analysis of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFPs), a document outlining, inter-alia, policy commitments by member countries, in the cont...

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) faces growing climate vulnerability, with rising temperatures and extreme weather threatening agriculture, food security, and economic growth. These challenges worsen poverty, fiscal constraints, and limited human capital ...

This paper explores how fluctuations in crime rates influence labor market outcomes in Mexico. Using detailed survey data and an individual-fixed effect estimation, the analysis reveals distinct gender dynamics in response to rising homicide rates...

Weather-related shocks are of a supply-side nature and therefore present significant challenges for monetary policy. Using a Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) framework, this paper provides an overview of weather-relevant analytical exercises that ...

We explore the relationship of recessions and tourism cycles on the economic performance of tourism-dependent Small Developing States (SDS). Using local projections regressions, we examine how these cycles affect potential output growth and its dr...

Fiscal policy plays an important macroeconomic role in Mongolia. On the one hand, fiscal expansion is seen as a measure to boost aggregate demand. On the other hand, import leakages mitigate the impact of fiscal expansion on growth. Applying a str...

The population of North Macedonia has been steadily declining over the past two decades and is projected to co...

Scientific progress relies on access to prior knowledge, yet costly access to academic literature can hinder researchers, particularly in marginalized positions of academia and developing economies. This paper examines the impact of free or lower-...

This paper examines how climate-related risks are priced in the commodity derivatives market. Lever aging a unique dataset of “brown” and “green” iron ore options traded on the Singapore Exchange, we document significant climate variance and skewn...