学术论文

Despite widespread speculation about artificial intelligence’s impact on the future of work, we lack systematic empirical evidence about how these systems are actually being used for different tasks. Here, we present a novel framework for measurin...

Machine learning tools that transform texts into numbers, capturing their meaning and sentiment, expand the range of economic analyses. Central bank communications are particularly important: their speeches, press conferences and other texts conta...

We study how house price shocks affect marital stability and household labor supply. We address this question using a dynamic collective household model with limited commitment. We find that positive house price shocks increase the divorce rate, a...

As AI chatbots see increased adoption and integration into everyday life, questions have been raised about the potential impact of human-like or anthropomorphic AI on users. In this work, we investigate the extent to which interactions with ChatGP...

2024 年全球经济平稳缓速运行，抑制了通胀，避免了衰退，实 现了“软着陆”。贸易回升超出预期，国际投资低位徘徊、转移明显，主 要经济体的分裂分化仍在延续。随着超级大选后各国新政治周期的开启， 2025 年全球看“美”，最大的关注点和风险点都来自美国，与“特朗普 2.0”冲击而来的是全球动荡加剧和重构加速。去全球化、地缘冲突、增长 缓慢、债务高企、国家和社会撕裂的重重阴霾困扰已久，世界有必要从根 本上反思国家发展偏好，审视政治的极端化、经济的国家发展主义、贸易 的新重商主义等思潮倾向，才能...

In this paper, we investigate how individuals evaluate human and large langue models gen erated responses to popular questions when the source of the content is either concealed or disclosed. Through a controlled field ex periment, participants we...

This paper assesses the impact of favoritism in public procurement on private sector productivity growth. To this end, it combines three novel microeconomic data sets: administrative data on firms, including more than 4 million firm-year observati...

I study the spillover effect of unsecured FinTech lending on mortgage markets. Using quasi-exogenous variation in LendingClub loan activity due to its partnership with the BancAlliance consortium of community banks in February 2015, I present caus...

This report was developed as a contribution to the OECD’s 2023-2024 horizontal project on Going Digital, Phase IV, under the Technology Governance Pillar, in collaboration with the Committee for Scientific and Technological Policy (CSTP), the Regu...

Using price incentives to allocate scarce resources is a core tenet of economics but may result in unpalatable distributional outcomes. We analyze the efficacy of prices as a means of inducing water conservation during severe drought by studying t...

Most countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are implementing fast payment systems (FPS), often with the goal of enhancing access to and use of affordable financial services. FPS offer immediate transfer of funds on a 24x7 basis between end u...

This paper presents theory and evidence to advance the notion that very persistent policy-induced interest rate changes may have only weak effects on activity. This arises when consumption-savings decisions are not primarily driven by intertempora...

欧洲国家面临高、上升且持续时间长的支出压力，凸显了需要重新关注财政政策以及全面的结构性改革，以使 他们的经济为未来几十年做好准备。在现有的财政负担——体现在几个国家的高赤字和债务比率中，受到近期 冲击和财政巩固需要的影响——之上，欧洲五个关键领域的支出压力即将到来且正在增长：由人口老龄化驱动 的养老金和医疗保险/长期护理支出、气候转型的成本、增加的国防开支以及更高的政府借贷成本。 提升对问题的认识并实施这一议程将不会是一件容易的任务。纳入长期支出压力、并由全面分析和数据支持的 精心设计的财...

Using 47 indicators of socioeconomic development and various sources of performance on cognitive tests, we constructed the SDI (socioeconomic development index) and a set of national IQs for 197 nations, the latter using no geographic imputations....